The monthly Pace Navigator gives you the Knowland Advantage! Through its TAP solutions, Knowland aggregates, analyzes, and reports on past and future event booking data as reported by participating CVBs, to deliver actionable trending insights needed to make better strategic decisions.
Through the month of September, CVB demand continues to pace ahead, now 4.7% ahead of the same time last year. This growth continues despite a significant dip in booking velocity, which is 1.6% behind last year.
Most of this dip is related to 2019 which is down 7.6% compared to the prior year. Some of this decline in booking velocity is mitigated by a 2.9% increase in pace for 2019. This still potentially leaves the year down just a bit and suggests booking volumes could be slowing.
However, if we remove 2019 from the booking velocity numbers, the adjusted velocity is down but only by 0.8% relative to last year. Most of this decline is in 2023 (6.6%) and 2025+ (19%). The remaining years are ahead fairly dramatically from a velocity pace perspective. We anticipate those two periods of time will resolve themselves in coming months and the growth we are seeing in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2024 would suggest future years are not weakening but, rather, still growing.
Check out the results in this month’s Pace Navigator!
|On the Books (OTB) Pace:
This metric measures the change in definite room nights on the books, as of September 30, 2019, compared to what was on the books the same time last year (STLY), or September 30, 2018. Our data shows there are 4.7% more room nights on the books compared to this time in 2018. The graph above shows the OTB Pace change versus the same time last year, for each year in the future booking horizon.
|New Bookings Velocity:
This metric measures the change in room nights from newly signed bookings over the last three months, in this case, July – September, compared to room nights booked over the same time last year (STLY). Across all future dates, the new bookings velocity is down 1.6% compared to the same 3-month window in 2018. The graph above shows the new bookings velocity change versus the same time last year, for each year in the future booking horizon. For example, the +7.1% new bookings velocity for 2021 compares the total room nights from July – September 2019 new bookings for 2 years into the future to the total room nights from July – September 2018 new bookings for 2 years into the future.
Our Take on This Month’s Data:
Over the past few issues of the Knowland Pace Navigator, we have continuously seen a positive booking velocity in 2021. This continued this month, as the 2021 booking velocity sits 4.8% ahead of Same Time Last Year (STLY). This was propelled by bookings added for the months of February, August, and November. These months were up in booking velocity over last year by 109.3%, 45.7%, and 79.3% respectively, with a total of 206,520 combined new room nights added to the books.
About the Pace Navigator:
Each month, Knowland collects a significant amount of data on forward-looking group demand across 60+ major North American markets. This data is provided by Convention and Visitor Bureaus (CVBs) that participate in Knowland’s TAP Report. It is unique in providing group room nights booking pace information across the entire multi-year future booking window. This data represents over 30 million annual room nights and represents nearly 50% of the group business conducted by hotels across these markets.